The 60-day ceasefire that was established in June between the United States and the Iranian government, and which was broken twice during that period through attacks against each other and against countries in the region, was scheduled to expire on Monday, August 17. Despite the claims made by both sides, what has so far been obvious is the inability of the United States to force Iran’s terrorist regime to accept Washington’s demands through air and missile strikes. Despite the Iranian government’s missile and drone attacks and the previous threats made by the U.S. president, what has emerged from Trump and his negotiating team in the press and media over the past week is a policy of escalating economic pressure rather than military attacks.

Some of the provisions of the memorandum of understanding signed by the two sides in June, such as the release of frozen funds, guarantees for oil sales, and even postponing negotiations over the nuclear program, were desperately needed by the Iranian government at the time. However, the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards decided to disrupt the agreement in an attempt to obtain further concessions, using as a pretext the alleged failure to comply with a provision of the memorandum that gave Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz. Now, before agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian government is demanding that the U.S. fulfill the commitments specified in the June memorandum. The United States, on the other hand, says that before implementing any agreement, Iran must first reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian government officials have described the new policy announced by Trump and his Treasury Secretary, imposing increasingly severe economic pressure through sanctions, as a failed policy that has proven ineffective over the past several decades. However, one important difference in this round of economic pressure, which Iranian regime officials do not acknowledge, is the naval blockade in the Persian Gulf, which has already demonstrated itself to be an effective tool during this short period.

That was why that last week Mohammad Mokhber, a representative of Mojtaba Khamenei, wrote on Twitter: “The Supreme Leader’s definitive strategy, should Iran’s conditions not be met, is to turn the war into an offensive one, and this strategy will transform the balance of power in the world.” Taken this position by the new Supreme Leader is precisely an indication of the effectiveness of the naval blockade and economic pressure on the Iranian government, which is forced to incur astronomical costs to import various goods by land routes. The declining value of the rial, rising inflation, and the inability to sell and export oil are indicators that any political analyst is aware of. Mojtaba Khamenei’s message is explicit: if the naval blockade continues, his Revolutionary Guards will take the war to the countries of the region in order to put pressure on the oil market and the global economy.

The rise in global oil prices and increases in fuel prices in Europe and the United States, followed in turn by higher inflation in Western and Far Eastern countries, gives the Iranian regime confidence that it can use the Strait as a tool to pressure the global economy. Neither side is willing to finalize the deal because each is betting on the other side’s desperation in this contest of endurance. In the current stalemate, what is being heard from both sides are unusual statements and political saber-rattling intended to intimidate the other side and demonstrate strength. Abbas Araghchi, speaking about the end of the 60-day ceasefire, said, “We did not have a ceasefire that we would now want to extend.” Trump, meanwhile, said during a speech in New York City on Friday and repeated later that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz to be U.S. territory. Kazem Gharibabadi, the Iranian regime’s deputy foreign minister, immediately responded to Trump’s statement by saying, “Accept the reality that you have suffered a major strategic defeat. This strait will be closed and opened only at Iran’s command.”

Meanwhile, on Saturday, August 15, the Foreign Ministry of the United Arab Emirates condemned the Iranian government for attacking an oil tanker belonging to the UAE. On the other hand, the Iranian regime claimed that Qatar had taken three Iranian pilots captive, a claim that Qatar strongly rejected. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry responded that it had only the body of one Iranian pilot in its possession and had repeatedly informed officials in Tehran of this matter, but Iran had taken no action to arrange for the transfer of the body.

What is fundamentally left unmentioned in all of this is the desperate situation of the Iranian people and their dire living and economic conditions. The Supreme Leader, the Revolutionary Guards, and the Iranian government as a whole have effectively taken the Iranian people, who are living under the worst possible conditions, hostage. They not only show the slightest concern for the people’s situation, but are relying solely on repression and executions to prevent spontaneous uprisings and revolts by the population. In the absence of a major opposition capable of playing a role in the current circumstances, the people are watching the endurance contest between the two sides of the war, trying to guess what their future will look like amid the political saber-rattling.